Tuscan Ridge Video

Never knew this existed, but here it is
At this time, there are over 100 lots sold and no construction. It would appear that many people bought as investors without knowing anything about Canaan Valley. Often making buys in blocks, investors receive concessions that eliminate any outlay for downpayment. They often then secured financing that provided for no payments for periods up to a couple of years. All this presumably to be positioned to flip the lot(s). Well, now Tuscan Ridge lots are not selling in the secondary market for even 60% of their original prices. How a company was able to get so many lots sold in the 90K range when comps did not support them, I just don't understand.

The proportions of this pump and dump project aside, I think it is ultimately good for Canaan to have another professionally executed development. Unfortunately, that good effect will unfold on the backs of the original buyers. Not until houses are constructed will Tuscan be more than a motionless wake behind a large land developer. My take is that average lots in Tuscan Ridge are worth (ie would actually sell for) about $45K.

Now guess what...comps have developed over the past year or two in Davis that support in-town corner lots in the low $40's. Tuscan's 90-100K price point for 1/2 acre was not sustainable and is now heading for $40's or $50's by the time some actually resell. Canaan has been falling a bit but not 40%, so I suspect that Tuscan's original closing prices reflected seller concessions, side agreements, and/or clever financing. Davis lots are up to mid $20s for 40ft lots and low $40s for a corner (if you can even get one). These are lots that were selling in the 'teens 3 and 4 years ago.

Tuscan market values are headed for the $40s. Downtown Davis will converge on perhaps a few $K less for smaller lots right in town. It could be argued that Tuscan has already been good for Davis downtown. Over the coming years leading into Corridor H completion to Davis, any progress in Tuscan will be good for Davis, and vice versa.